Pott Candles · testing review, part 2 · updated 28 Oct 2026

What happens to the main campaign in the two weeks after new ads go in?

Campaign-level results only, day by day: 14 days before each batch of new ads was added, 14 days after. Not how the new ads themselves did. Every batch of new ads of any size, from a single ad to 44, added to a main campaign that had been running at least 10 days and spending at least £50 a day, January to mid October. Compared against two-week stretches in the same campaigns when no ads were added.

24batches of new ads (16 untested straight in, 6 mixed, 2 tested winners only)
+10% vs +9%cost per sale two weeks later: with new ads vs with none added
2clean moves of tested winners on their own: too few to judge

Short version

  • Adding new ads does not measurably unsettle the main campaign. After new ads went in, 31% → 46% of days were "rough" (more than 25% off the earlier cost per sale). In two-week stretches with no new ads at all, the same measure went 39% → 50%. The day-to-day swings are normal for the campaign, not caused by the new ads.
  • It does not measurably help or hurt cost per sale either. Two weeks after new ads, cost per sale was a median +10% against the two weeks before, with 12 of 24 batches ending more than 10% dearer. With no new ads it was +9%, 7 of 15 dearer. Most batches also arrived with a budget increase and a busier season, so neither number is a clean read on the creative itself.
  • Batch size makes no clear difference. One or two ads did not land any more smoothly than 20 or more. Bigger batches cost more sales in total, mostly because they went into bigger campaigns spending more.
  • Moving proven test winners on their own has not been tried often enough to judge. Only 2 clean cases (4 Aug Cook Candles, 1 ad, £48 → £40 per sale; 14 Aug Roses May 2026, 1 ad, £32 → £38 per sale). The Flora move into Gifting is the next one, and it should be read the same way as these.

1 · With and without new ads

The same two-week read, side by side

"No new ads added" means two-week stretches in the same campaigns with no ad created within 14 days either side, stepped a week at a time. They are measured exactly the same way as the batches.

Two-week windowCountCost per sale change (median)>10% dearerRough days
No new ads added15+9%7 of 1539% → 50%
New ads added (all batches)24+10%12 of 2431% → 46%
  untested, straight in16+7%7 of 1635% → 48%
  mixed tested and untested6+12%4 of 622% → 33%
  tested winners only2+0%1 of 217% → 71%

Rough days rise in every row, including the one where nothing changed. That is partly how the measure works: the days before are compared with their own average, so they naturally sit close to it, while the days after are compared with a different fortnight's average. What matters is the comparison between rows, not the rise within a row.

2 · By batch size

Does a smaller batch land more gently?

Ads in the batchCountCost per sale change (median)>10% dearerRough days
1 to 2 ads4+13%2 of 427% → 64%
3 to 5 ads6+0%3 of 642% → 39%
6 to 12 ads4+10%2 of 425% → 34%
13 or more ads10+5%5 of 1028% → 49%

No clear pattern. Each group holds only 4 to 10 batches, so differences of 10 points either way are within the noise.

3 · All batches on one chart

How far off the before-average, and for how long

Each thin line is one batch. The value is the 3-day rolling cost per sale divided by the campaign's average over the 14 days before, so 1.0x means "same as before" and 1.5x means 50% dearer. The thick orange line is the median of all batches with new ads. The dashed dark line is the median of the stretches with no new ads.

0.5x1.0x1.5x2.0xnew ads go in-10-50+5+10+13days before and after the new ads went in · 3-day rolling cost per sale, as a multiple of the 14-day-before average · grey band = within 25%4 Feb S | Sales | Cold & Warm | Evergreen 202620 Feb S | Sales | Cold & Warm | Evergreen 202611 Mar S | Sales | Cold & Warm | Evergreen 202617 Apr CS | Sales | Cold & Warm | Cook Candles19 May CS | Sales | Cold & Warm | Cook Candles17 Jun ales | Cold & Warm | Citronella May 202617 Jun old & Warm | Evergreen (old Tomato vine)14 Jul ales | Cold & Warm | Citronella May 202614 Jul old & Warm | Evergreen (old Tomato vine)5 Aug old & Warm | Evergreen (old Tomato vine)15 Aug CS | Sales | Cold & Warm | Cook Candles31 Aug old & Warm | Evergreen (old Tomato vine)4 Oct CS | Sales | Cold & Warm | Cook Candles4 Oct old & Warm | Evergreen (old Tomato vine)12 Oct CS | Sales | Cold & Warm | Cook Candles12 Oct old & Warm | Evergreen (old Tomato vine)2 May S | Sales | Cold & Warm | Evergreen 202614 Aug ales | Cold & Warm | Citronella May 202614 Aug old & Warm | Evergreen (old Tomato vine)8 Sep old & Warm | Evergreen (old Tomato vine)17 Sep old & Warm | Evergreen (old Tomato vine)25 Sep old & Warm | Evergreen (old Tomato vine)4 Aug CS | Sales | Cold & Warm | Cook Candles14 Aug S | Sales | Cold & Warm | Roses May 2026no new adswith new ads
untested ads straight in (16)mixed batches (6)tested winners only (2)median, no new ads (15)

Both medians wander about 10% either side of the before-average. The new-ads line sits a little higher in the second week (around 1.1x against about 1.0x), which is within the noise for this many windows. Lines are capped at 2.2x for readability; hover a line for the batch.

4 · Every batch, day by day

The two weeks before and after each one

Dots are daily cost per sale for the whole campaign. Grey dots are before, coloured dots after. The dashed line is the 14-day-before average and the grey band is within 25% of it. A × at the top is a day with spend and no sales. Tested-only moves first, then mixed, then straight-in, each in date order.

4 Aug · Cook Candles1 ad
£104/d → £79/d · per sale £48 → £32 (wk1) → £40 (2wk)
£48-14-70+7+13day -14: £106 spend, 4 sales, £27 per saleday -13: £103 spend, 3 sales, £34 per saleday -12: £119 spend, 1 sales, £119 per saleday -11: £134 spend, 2 sales, £67 per saleday -10: £78 spend, 2 sales, £39 per saleday -9: £119 spend, 4 sales, £30 per saleday -8: £99 spend, 2 sales, £49 per saleday -7: £95 spend, 2 sales, £47 per saleday -6: £97 spend, 2 sales, £48 per sale×day -5: £96 spend, no salesday -4: £90 spend, 2 sales, £45 per saleday -3: £105 spend, 4 sales, £26 per saleday -2: £118 spend, 1 sales, £118 per saleday -1: £92 spend, 1 sales, £92 per saleday +0: £73 spend, 1 sales, £73 per saleday +1: £69 spend, 1 sales, £69 per saleday +2: £78 spend, 3 sales, £26 per saleday +3: £80 spend, 1 sales, £80 per saleday +4: £87 spend, 4 sales, £22 per saleday +5: £101 spend, 3 sales, £34 per saleday +6: £80 spend, 5 sales, £16 per saleday +7: £68 spend, 1 sales, £68 per sale×day +8: £68 spend, no salesday +9: £85 spend, 1 sales, £85 per saleday +10: £78 spend, 6 sales, £13 per sale×day +11: £78 spend, no salesday +12: £88 spend, 1 sales, £88 per saleday +13: £77 spend, 1 sales, £77 per sale
rough days: 3 of 12 before, 12 of 14 after · not settled by day 13
14 Aug · Roses May 20261 ad
£155/d → £142/d · per sale £32 → £33 (wk1) → £38 (2wk)
£32-14-70+7+13day -14: £124 spend, 5 sales, £25 per saleday -13: £129 spend, 6 sales, £21 per saleday -12: £146 spend, 3 sales, £49 per saleday -11: £144 spend, 5 sales, £29 per saleday -10: £132 spend, 4 sales, £33 per saleday -9: £145 spend, 5 sales, £29 per saleday -8: £132 spend, 3 sales, £44 per saleday -7: £168 spend, 8 sales, £21 per saleday -6: £138 spend, 2 sales, £69 per saleday -5: £216 spend, 7 sales, £31 per saleday -4: £179 spend, 7 sales, £26 per saleday -3: £160 spend, 3 sales, £53 per saleday -2: £177 spend, 9 sales, £20 per sale×day -1: £179 spend, no salesday +0: £180 spend, 7 sales, £26 per saleday +1: £183 spend, 8 sales, £23 per saleday +2: £186 spend, 6 sales, £31 per saleday +3: £176 spend, 5 sales, £35 per saleday +4: £177 spend, 2 sales, £88 per saleday +5: £170 spend, 4 sales, £42 per saleday +6: £132 spend, 4 sales, £33 per saleday +7: £129 spend, 2 sales, £64 per saleday +8: £116 spend, 1 sales, £116 per sale (off scale)day +9: £134 spend, 2 sales, £67 per saleday +10: £116 spend, 1 sales, £116 per sale (off scale)day +11: £105 spend, 4 sales, £26 per saleday +12: £94 spend, 5 sales, £19 per saleday +13: £97 spend, 1 sales, £97 per sale
rough days: 1 of 12 before, 8 of 14 after · settled day 12
2 May · Evergreen 20263 ads, 1 tested
£175/d → £150/d · per sale £38 → £38 (wk1) → £43 (2wk)
£38-14-70+7+13day -14: £202 spend, 3 sales, £67 per saleday -13: £274 spend, 7 sales, £39 per saleday -12: £149 spend, 2 sales, £75 per saleday -11: £150 spend, 4 sales, £37 per saleday -10: £147 spend, 3 sales, £49 per saleday -9: £128 spend, 3 sales, £43 per saleday -8: £161 spend, 2 sales, £80 per saleday -7: £157 spend, 10 sales, £16 per saleday -6: £205 spend, 2 sales, £102 per saleday -5: £133 spend, 4 sales, £33 per saleday -4: £181 spend, 4 sales, £45 per saleday -3: £191 spend, 5 sales, £38 per saleday -2: £182 spend, 4 sales, £46 per saleday -1: £197 spend, 11 sales, £18 per saleday +0: £171 spend, 3 sales, £57 per saleday +1: £178 spend, 3 sales, £59 per saleday +2: £192 spend, 9 sales, £21 per saleday +3: £162 spend, 7 sales, £23 per saleday +4: £153 spend, 3 sales, £51 per saleday +5: £144 spend, 2 sales, £72 per saleday +6: £145 spend, 3 sales, £48 per saleday +7: £130 spend, 3 sales, £43 per saleday +8: £177 spend, 3 sales, £59 per saleday +9: £152 spend, 5 sales, £30 per saleday +10: £138 spend, 3 sales, £46 per saleday +11: £149 spend, 3 sales, £50 per sale×day +12: £118 spend, no salesday +13: £98 spend, 2 sales, £49 per sale
rough days: 5 of 12 before, 7 of 14 after · not settled by day 13
14 Aug · Citronella May 20264 ads, 1 tested
£177/d → £145/d · per sale £41 → £33 (wk1) → £33 (2wk)
£41-14-70+7+13day -14: £162 spend, 5 sales, £32 per saleday -13: £162 spend, 7 sales, £23 per saleday -12: £162 spend, 6 sales, £27 per saleday -11: £147 spend, 5 sales, £29 per saleday -10: £134 spend, 2 sales, £67 per saleday -9: £153 spend, 3 sales, £51 per saleday -8: £154 spend, 5 sales, £31 per saleday -7: £181 spend, 7 sales, £26 per saleday -6: £168 spend, 3 sales, £56 per saleday -5: £253 spend, 4 sales, £63 per saleday -4: £206 spend, 5 sales, £41 per saleday -3: £190 spend, 2 sales, £95 per saleday -2: £198 spend, 2 sales, £99 per saleday -1: £213 spend, 4 sales, £53 per saleday +0: £221 spend, 10 sales, £22 per saleday +1: £229 spend, 9 sales, £25 per saleday +2: £220 spend, 3 sales, £73 per saleday +3: £201 spend, 5 sales, £40 per saleday +4: £196 spend, 4 sales, £49 per saleday +5: £170 spend, 7 sales, £24 per saleday +6: £101 spend, 3 sales, £34 per saleday +7: £102 spend, 2 sales, £51 per saleday +8: £90 spend, 4 sales, £23 per saleday +9: £106 spend, 5 sales, £21 per saleday +10: £101 spend, 3 sales, £34 per sale×day +11: £103 spend, no salesday +12: £94 spend, 3 sales, £31 per saleday +13: £95 spend, 3 sales, £32 per sale
rough days: 6 of 12 before, 4 of 14 after · settled day 11
14 Aug · Evergreen (old Tomato vine)12 ads, 3 tested
£426/d → £649/d · per sale £33 → £34 (wk1) → £37 (2wk)
£33-14-70+7+13day -14: £341 spend, 13 sales, £26 per saleday -13: £363 spend, 16 sales, £23 per saleday -12: £371 spend, 13 sales, £29 per saleday -11: £333 spend, 13 sales, £26 per saleday -10: £352 spend, 14 sales, £25 per saleday -9: £406 spend, 8 sales, £51 per saleday -8: £379 spend, 11 sales, £34 per saleday -7: £485 spend, 18 sales, £27 per saleday -6: £569 spend, 18 sales, £32 per saleday -5: £571 spend, 16 sales, £36 per saleday -4: £435 spend, 9 sales, £48 per saleday -3: £416 spend, 15 sales, £28 per saleday -2: £458 spend, 10 sales, £46 per saleday -1: £488 spend, 9 sales, £54 per saleday +0: £496 spend, 10 sales, £50 per saleday +1: £552 spend, 23 sales, £24 per saleday +2: £464 spend, 16 sales, £29 per saleday +3: £466 spend, 12 sales, £39 per saleday +4: £465 spend, 11 sales, £42 per saleday +5: £486 spend, 26 sales, £19 per saleday +6: £682 spend, 9 sales, £76 per saleday +7: £734 spend, 21 sales, £35 per saleday +8: £775 spend, 25 sales, £31 per saleday +9: £817 spend, 21 sales, £39 per saleday +10: £781 spend, 19 sales, £41 per saleday +11: £809 spend, 12 sales, £67 per saleday +12: £775 spend, 21 sales, £37 per saleday +13: £785 spend, 18 sales, £44 per sale
rough days: 0 of 12 before, 4 of 14 after · not settled by day 13
8 Sep · Evergreen (old Tomato vine)20 ads, 2 tested
£915/d → £1,121/d · per sale £37 → £44 (wk1) → £45 (2wk)
£37-14-70+7+13day -14: £809 spend, 12 sales, £67 per saleday -13: £775 spend, 21 sales, £37 per saleday -12: £785 spend, 18 sales, £44 per saleday -11: £810 spend, 32 sales, £25 per saleday -10: £823 spend, 26 sales, £32 per saleday -9: £874 spend, 35 sales, £25 per saleday -8: £948 spend, 33 sales, £29 per saleday -7: £925 spend, 27 sales, £34 per saleday -6: £937 spend, 29 sales, £32 per saleday -5: £925 spend, 22 sales, £42 per saleday -4: £956 spend, 20 sales, £48 per saleday -3: £983 spend, 23 sales, £43 per saleday -2: £1,218 spend, 27 sales, £45 per saleday -1: £1,046 spend, 22 sales, £48 per saleday +0: £1,072 spend, 26 sales, £41 per saleday +1: £1,014 spend, 14 sales, £72 per saleday +2: £1,106 spend, 32 sales, £35 per saleday +3: £1,115 spend, 19 sales, £59 per saleday +4: £1,130 spend, 37 sales, £31 per saleday +5: £1,281 spend, 28 sales, £46 per saleday +6: £998 spend, 19 sales, £53 per saleday +7: £824 spend, 14 sales, £59 per saleday +8: £1,232 spend, 26 sales, £47 per saleday +9: £1,124 spend, 23 sales, £49 per saleday +10: £1,109 spend, 27 sales, £41 per saleday +11: £997 spend, 32 sales, £31 per saleday +12: £1,454 spend, 29 sales, £50 per saleday +13: £1,245 spend, 21 sales, £59 per sale
rough days: 2 of 12 before, 5 of 14 after · settled day 10
17 Sep · Evergreen (old Tomato vine)27 ads, 5 tested
£1,064/d → £1,444/d · per sale £45 → £54 (wk1) → £51 (2wk)
£45-14-70+7+13day -14: £925 spend, 22 sales, £42 per saleday -13: £956 spend, 20 sales, £48 per saleday -12: £983 spend, 23 sales, £43 per saleday -11: £1,218 spend, 27 sales, £45 per saleday -10: £1,046 spend, 22 sales, £48 per saleday -9: £1,072 spend, 26 sales, £41 per saleday -8: £1,014 spend, 14 sales, £72 per saleday -7: £1,106 spend, 32 sales, £35 per saleday -6: £1,115 spend, 19 sales, £59 per saleday -5: £1,130 spend, 37 sales, £31 per saleday -4: £1,281 spend, 28 sales, £46 per saleday -3: £998 spend, 19 sales, £53 per saleday -2: £824 spend, 14 sales, £59 per saleday -1: £1,232 spend, 26 sales, £47 per saleday +0: £1,124 spend, 23 sales, £49 per saleday +1: £1,109 spend, 27 sales, £41 per saleday +2: £997 spend, 32 sales, £31 per saleday +3: £1,454 spend, 29 sales, £50 per saleday +4: £1,245 spend, 21 sales, £59 per saleday +5: £1,237 spend, 11 sales, £112 per saleday +6: £1,315 spend, 14 sales, £94 per saleday +7: £1,344 spend, 23 sales, £58 per saleday +8: £1,652 spend, 34 sales, £49 per saleday +9: £1,543 spend, 40 sales, £39 per saleday +10: £2,034 spend, 65 sales, £31 per saleday +11: £1,821 spend, 27 sales, £67 per saleday +12: £1,630 spend, 18 sales, £91 per saleday +13: £1,705 spend, 32 sales, £53 per sale
rough days: 0 of 12 before, 5 of 14 after · not settled by day 13
25 Sep · Evergreen (old Tomato vine)24 ads, 1 tested
£1,172/d → £1,872/d · per sale £51 → £49 (wk1) → £48 (2wk)
£51-14-70+7+13day -14: £1,115 spend, 19 sales, £59 per saleday -13: £1,130 spend, 37 sales, £31 per saleday -12: £1,281 spend, 28 sales, £46 per saleday -11: £998 spend, 19 sales, £53 per saleday -10: £824 spend, 14 sales, £59 per saleday -9: £1,232 spend, 26 sales, £47 per saleday -8: £1,124 spend, 23 sales, £49 per saleday -7: £1,109 spend, 27 sales, £41 per saleday -6: £997 spend, 32 sales, £31 per saleday -5: £1,454 spend, 29 sales, £50 per saleday -4: £1,245 spend, 21 sales, £59 per saleday -3: £1,237 spend, 11 sales, £112 per saleday -2: £1,315 spend, 14 sales, £94 per saleday -1: £1,344 spend, 23 sales, £58 per saleday +0: £1,652 spend, 34 sales, £49 per saleday +1: £1,543 spend, 40 sales, £39 per saleday +2: £2,034 spend, 65 sales, £31 per saleday +3: £1,821 spend, 27 sales, £67 per saleday +4: £1,630 spend, 18 sales, £91 per saleday +5: £1,705 spend, 32 sales, £53 per saleday +6: £1,755 spend, 32 sales, £55 per saleday +7: £1,891 spend, 35 sales, £54 per saleday +8: £1,904 spend, 28 sales, £68 per saleday +9: £1,961 spend, 28 sales, £70 per saleday +10: £1,753 spend, 33 sales, £53 per saleday +11: £1,701 spend, 68 sales, £25 per saleday +12: £2,287 spend, 51 sales, £45 per saleday +13: £2,567 spend, 53 sales, £48 per sale
rough days: 3 of 12 before, 3 of 14 after · settled day 13
4 Feb · Evergreen 202613 ads
£499/d → £658/d · per sale £27 → £28 (wk1) → £36 (2wk)
£27-14-70+7+13day -14: £488 spend, 25 sales, £20 per saleday -13: £485 spend, 11 sales, £44 per saleday -12: £485 spend, 13 sales, £37 per saleday -11: £504 spend, 22 sales, £23 per saleday -10: £529 spend, 16 sales, £33 per saleday -9: £490 spend, 12 sales, £41 per saleday -8: £499 spend, 28 sales, £18 per saleday -7: £494 spend, 27 sales, £18 per saleday -6: £474 spend, 16 sales, £30 per saleday -5: £489 spend, 18 sales, £27 per saleday -4: £524 spend, 32 sales, £16 per saleday -3: £535 spend, 14 sales, £38 per saleday -2: £498 spend, 16 sales, £31 per saleday -1: £490 spend, 12 sales, £41 per saleday +0: £491 spend, 13 sales, £38 per saleday +1: £487 spend, 33 sales, £15 per saleday +2: £484 spend, 13 sales, £37 per saleday +3: £512 spend, 18 sales, £28 per saleday +4: £518 spend, 20 sales, £26 per saleday +5: £514 spend, 15 sales, £34 per saleday +6: £492 spend, 11 sales, £45 per saleday +7: £485 spend, 17 sales, £29 per saleday +8: £796 spend, 24 sales, £33 per saleday +9: £832 spend, 22 sales, £38 per saleday +10: £886 spend, 27 sales, £33 per saleday +11: £933 spend, 13 sales, £72 per saleday +12: £903 spend, 16 sales, £56 per saleday +13: £883 spend, 13 sales, £68 per sale
rough days: 1 of 12 before, 8 of 14 after · not settled by day 13
20 Feb · Evergreen 20269 ads
£700/d → £611/d · per sale £41 → £46 (wk1) → £30 (2wk)
£41-14-70+7+13day -14: £484 spend, 13 sales, £37 per saleday -13: £512 spend, 18 sales, £28 per saleday -12: £518 spend, 20 sales, £26 per saleday -11: £514 spend, 15 sales, £34 per saleday -10: £492 spend, 11 sales, £45 per saleday -9: £485 spend, 17 sales, £29 per saleday -8: £796 spend, 24 sales, £33 per saleday -7: £832 spend, 22 sales, £38 per saleday -6: £886 spend, 27 sales, £33 per saleday -5: £933 spend, 13 sales, £72 per saleday -4: £903 spend, 16 sales, £56 per saleday -3: £883 spend, 13 sales, £68 per saleday -2: £873 spend, 13 sales, £67 per saleday -1: £689 spend, 16 sales, £43 per saleday +0: £574 spend, 11 sales, £52 per saleday +1: £608 spend, 18 sales, £34 per saleday +2: £620 spend, 13 sales, £48 per saleday +3: £598 spend, 8 sales, £75 per saleday +4: £593 spend, 16 sales, £37 per saleday +5: £565 spend, 12 sales, £47 per saleday +6: £594 spend, 13 sales, £46 per saleday +7: £594 spend, 73 sales, £8 per saleday +8: £636 spend, 23 sales, £28 per saleday +9: £625 spend, 34 sales, £18 per saleday +10: £601 spend, 17 sales, £35 per saleday +11: £594 spend, 21 sales, £28 per saleday +12: £661 spend, 10 sales, £66 per saleday +13: £685 spend, 12 sales, £57 per sale
rough days: 5 of 12 before, 6 of 14 after · settled day 12
11 Mar · Evergreen 202618 ads
£700/d → £921/d · per sale £29 → £66 (wk1) → £61 (2wk)
£29-14-70+7+13day -14: £565 spend, 12 sales, £47 per saleday -13: £594 spend, 13 sales, £46 per saleday -12: £594 spend, 73 sales, £8 per saleday -11: £636 spend, 23 sales, £28 per saleday -10: £625 spend, 34 sales, £18 per saleday -9: £601 spend, 17 sales, £35 per saleday -8: £594 spend, 21 sales, £28 per saleday -7: £661 spend, 10 sales, £66 per saleday -6: £685 spend, 12 sales, £57 per saleday -5: £767 spend, 28 sales, £27 per saleday -4: £855 spend, 23 sales, £37 per saleday -3: £866 spend, 29 sales, £30 per saleday -2: £886 spend, 28 sales, £32 per saleday -1: £862 spend, 12 sales, £72 per saleday +0: £852 spend, 12 sales, £71 per saleday +1: £961 spend, 17 sales, £57 per saleday +2: £1,025 spend, 15 sales, £68 per saleday +3: £1,078 spend, 19 sales, £57 per saleday +4: £1,296 spend, 23 sales, £56 per saleday +5: £1,272 spend, 16 sales, £80 per saleday +6: £1,211 spend, 15 sales, £81 per saleday +7: £1,035 spend, 14 sales, £74 per saleday +8: £643 spend, 14 sales, £46 per saleday +9: £667 spend, 14 sales, £48 per saleday +10: £696 spend, 13 sales, £54 per saleday +11: £732 spend, 17 sales, £43 per saleday +12: £712 spend, 9 sales, £79 per saleday +13: £714 spend, 14 sales, £51 per sale
rough days: 8 of 12 before, 14 of 14 after · not settled by day 13
17 Apr · Cook Candles5 ads
£74/d → £96/d · per sale £47 → £58 (wk1) → £41 (2wk)
£47-14-70+7+13day -14: £59 spend, 2 sales, £29 per saleday -13: £52 spend, 4 sales, £13 per saleday -12: £68 spend, 1 sales, £68 per sale×day -11: £58 spend, no salesday -10: £54 spend, 1 sales, £54 per saleday -9: £63 spend, 2 sales, £32 per saleday -8: £76 spend, 1 sales, £76 per saleday -7: £72 spend, 1 sales, £72 per saleday -6: £84 spend, 3 sales, £28 per saleday -5: £98 spend, 1 sales, £98 per saleday -4: £73 spend, 1 sales, £73 per saleday -3: £82 spend, 1 sales, £82 per saleday -2: £92 spend, 2 sales, £46 per saleday -1: £100 spend, 2 sales, £50 per sale×day +0: £85 spend, no salesday +1: £69 spend, 2 sales, £35 per saleday +2: £94 spend, 3 sales, £31 per saleday +3: £99 spend, 2 sales, £50 per saleday +4: £107 spend, 2 sales, £54 per saleday +5: £98 spend, 2 sales, £49 per sale×day +6: £80 spend, no salesday +7: £102 spend, 1 sales, £102 per saleday +8: £106 spend, 7 sales, £15 per saleday +9: £117 spend, 2 sales, £59 per saleday +10: £79 spend, 2 sales, £39 per saleday +11: £99 spend, 4 sales, £25 per saleday +12: £110 spend, 4 sales, £27 per saleday +13: £102 spend, 2 sales, £51 per sale
rough days: 4 of 12 before, 8 of 14 after · not settled by day 13
19 May · Cook Candles23 ads
£122/d → £149/d · per sale £52 → £43 (wk1) → £35 (2wk)
£52-14-70+7+13day -14: £107 spend, 3 sales, £36 per sale×day -13: £131 spend, no salesday -12: £118 spend, 2 sales, £59 per saleday -11: £123 spend, 1 sales, £123 per saleday -10: £114 spend, 1 sales, £114 per saleday -9: £140 spend, 2 sales, £70 per saleday -8: £120 spend, 2 sales, £60 per saleday -7: £116 spend, 4 sales, £29 per saleday -6: £119 spend, 4 sales, £30 per saleday -5: £96 spend, 2 sales, £48 per saleday -4: £147 spend, 5 sales, £29 per saleday -3: £121 spend, 1 sales, £121 per saleday -2: £135 spend, 6 sales, £22 per sale×day -1: £117 spend, no salesday +0: £127 spend, 2 sales, £63 per saleday +1: £149 spend, 1 sales, £149 per saleday +2: £133 spend, 3 sales, £44 per saleday +3: £110 spend, 2 sales, £55 per saleday +4: £160 spend, 4 sales, £40 per saleday +5: £188 spend, 4 sales, £47 per saleday +6: £170 spend, 8 sales, £21 per saleday +7: £106 spend, 3 sales, £35 per saleday +8: £116 spend, 5 sales, £23 per saleday +9: £157 spend, 4 sales, £39 per saleday +10: £147 spend, 4 sales, £37 per saleday +11: £145 spend, 7 sales, £21 per saleday +12: £199 spend, 9 sales, £22 per saleday +13: £186 spend, 4 sales, £46 per sale
rough days: 9 of 12 before, 11 of 14 after · not settled by day 13
17 Jun · Citronella May 202624 ads
£166/d → £148/d · per sale £50 → £35 (wk1) → £40 (2wk)
£50-14-70+7+13day -14: £148 spend, 4 sales, £37 per saleday -13: £165 spend, 2 sales, £83 per saleday -12: £182 spend, 2 sales, £91 per saleday -11: £172 spend, 3 sales, £57 per saleday -10: £156 spend, 5 sales, £31 per saleday -9: £181 spend, 5 sales, £36 per saleday -8: £167 spend, 3 sales, £56 per saleday -7: £168 spend, 5 sales, £34 per saleday -6: £176 spend, 4 sales, £44 per saleday -5: £155 spend, 2 sales, £77 per saleday -4: £199 spend, 4 sales, £50 per saleday -3: £181 spend, 4 sales, £45 per saleday -2: £141 spend, 2 sales, £71 per saleday -1: £138 spend, 2 sales, £69 per saleday +0: £178 spend, 4 sales, £44 per saleday +1: £125 spend, 5 sales, £25 per saleday +2: £119 spend, 2 sales, £60 per saleday +3: £161 spend, 8 sales, £20 per saleday +4: £176 spend, 4 sales, £44 per saleday +5: £140 spend, 3 sales, £47 per saleday +6: £138 spend, 4 sales, £35 per saleday +7: £152 spend, 2 sales, £76 per saleday +8: £145 spend, 3 sales, £48 per saleday +9: £138 spend, 3 sales, £46 per saleday +10: £157 spend, 2 sales, £78 per saleday +11: £157 spend, 6 sales, £26 per saleday +12: £147 spend, 4 sales, £37 per saleday +13: £138 spend, 2 sales, £69 per sale
rough days: 1 of 12 before, 4 of 14 after · not settled by day 13
17 Jun · Evergreen (old Tomato vine)5 ads
£127/d → £205/d · per sale £18 → £25 (wk1) → £24 (2wk)
£18-14-70+7+13day -14: £83 spend, 4 sales, £21 per saleday -13: £83 spend, 7 sales, £12 per saleday -12: £109 spend, 8 sales, £14 per saleday -11: £95 spend, 13 sales, £7 per saleday -10: £129 spend, 6 sales, £22 per saleday -9: £118 spend, 8 sales, £15 per saleday -8: £114 spend, 7 sales, £16 per saleday -7: £105 spend, 2 sales, £52 per saleday -6: £138 spend, 7 sales, £20 per saleday -5: £119 spend, 4 sales, £30 per saleday -4: £146 spend, 10 sales, £15 per saleday -3: £168 spend, 8 sales, £21 per saleday -2: £180 spend, 8 sales, £23 per saleday -1: £186 spend, 6 sales, £31 per saleday +0: £219 spend, 8 sales, £27 per saleday +1: £182 spend, 8 sales, £23 per saleday +2: £189 spend, 8 sales, £24 per saleday +3: £226 spend, 12 sales, £19 per saleday +4: £242 spend, 12 sales, £20 per saleday +5: £195 spend, 4 sales, £49 per saleday +6: £196 spend, 6 sales, £33 per saleday +7: £204 spend, 5 sales, £41 per saleday +8: £203 spend, 12 sales, £17 per saleday +9: £193 spend, 9 sales, £21 per saleday +10: £206 spend, 9 sales, £23 per saleday +11: £223 spend, 13 sales, £17 per saleday +12: £191 spend, 5 sales, £38 per saleday +13: £196 spend, 10 sales, £20 per sale
rough days: 5 of 12 before, 9 of 14 after · settled day 13
14 Jul · Citronella May 202616 ads
£150/d → £150/d · per sale £58 → £52 (wk1) → £57 (2wk)
£58-14-70+7+13day -14: £138 spend, 2 sales, £69 per saleday -13: £156 spend, 3 sales, £52 per saleday -12: £145 spend, 2 sales, £72 per saleday -11: £139 spend, 5 sales, £28 per saleday -10: £166 spend, 4 sales, £42 per saleday -9: £160 spend, 1 sales, £160 per saleday -8: £149 spend, 2 sales, £75 per saleday -7: £128 spend, 2 sales, £64 per saleday -6: £144 spend, 3 sales, £48 per sale×day -5: £156 spend, no salesday -4: £135 spend, 1 sales, £135 per saleday -3: £173 spend, 2 sales, £87 per saleday -2: £186 spend, 4 sales, £47 per saleday -1: £125 spend, 5 sales, £25 per saleday +0: £156 spend, 3 sales, £52 per saleday +1: £140 spend, 3 sales, £47 per saleday +2: £137 spend, 3 sales, £46 per saleday +3: £144 spend, 4 sales, £36 per saleday +4: £163 spend, 2 sales, £81 per saleday +5: £172 spend, 3 sales, £57 per saleday +6: £136 spend, 2 sales, £68 per saleday +7: £135 spend, 5 sales, £27 per saleday +8: £119 spend, 2 sales, £59 per saleday +9: £152 spend, 2 sales, £76 per sale×day +10: £156 spend, no salesday +11: £177 spend, 3 sales, £59 per saleday +12: £166 spend, 2 sales, £83 per saleday +13: £149 spend, 3 sales, £50 per sale
rough days: 5 of 12 before, 7 of 14 after · settled day 13
14 Jul · Evergreen (old Tomato vine)30 ads
£231/d → £290/d · per sale £23 → £45 (wk1) → £35 (2wk)
£23-14-70+7+13day -14: £196 spend, 10 sales, £20 per saleday -13: £207 spend, 7 sales, £30 per saleday -12: £196 spend, 8 sales, £25 per saleday -11: £199 spend, 9 sales, £22 per saleday -10: £234 spend, 14 sales, £17 per saleday -9: £254 spend, 7 sales, £36 per saleday -8: £235 spend, 9 sales, £26 per saleday -7: £214 spend, 11 sales, £19 per saleday -6: £238 spend, 8 sales, £30 per saleday -5: £258 spend, 11 sales, £23 per saleday -4: £234 spend, 8 sales, £29 per saleday -3: £286 spend, 16 sales, £18 per saleday -2: £262 spend, 11 sales, £24 per saleday -1: £221 spend, 11 sales, £20 per saleday +0: £253 spend, 10 sales, £25 per saleday +1: £288 spend, 5 sales, £58 per saleday +2: £273 spend, 3 sales, £91 per sale (off scale)day +3: £256 spend, 6 sales, £43 per saleday +4: £319 spend, 4 sales, £80 per sale (off scale)day +5: £337 spend, 7 sales, £48 per saleday +6: £271 spend, 9 sales, £30 per saleday +7: £272 spend, 7 sales, £39 per saleday +8: £241 spend, 6 sales, £40 per saleday +9: £287 spend, 18 sales, £16 per saleday +10: £297 spend, 15 sales, £20 per saleday +11: £257 spend, 12 sales, £21 per saleday +12: £374 spend, 7 sales, £53 per saleday +13: £338 spend, 7 sales, £48 per sale
rough days: 0 of 12 before, 9 of 14 after · not settled by day 13
5 Aug · Evergreen (old Tomato vine)2 ads
£323/d → £475/d · per sale £27 → £34 (wk1) → £36 (2wk)
£27-14-70+7+13day -14: £241 spend, 6 sales, £40 per saleday -13: £287 spend, 18 sales, £16 per saleday -12: £297 spend, 15 sales, £20 per saleday -11: £257 spend, 12 sales, £21 per saleday -10: £374 spend, 7 sales, £53 per saleday -9: £338 spend, 7 sales, £48 per saleday -8: £319 spend, 10 sales, £32 per saleday -7: £327 spend, 9 sales, £36 per saleday -6: £318 spend, 14 sales, £23 per saleday -5: £341 spend, 13 sales, £26 per saleday -4: £363 spend, 16 sales, £23 per saleday -3: £371 spend, 13 sales, £29 per saleday -2: £333 spend, 13 sales, £26 per saleday -1: £352 spend, 14 sales, £25 per saleday +0: £406 spend, 8 sales, £51 per saleday +1: £379 spend, 11 sales, £34 per saleday +2: £485 spend, 18 sales, £27 per saleday +3: £569 spend, 18 sales, £32 per saleday +4: £571 spend, 16 sales, £36 per saleday +5: £435 spend, 9 sales, £48 per saleday +6: £416 spend, 15 sales, £28 per saleday +7: £458 spend, 10 sales, £46 per saleday +8: £488 spend, 9 sales, £54 per saleday +9: £496 spend, 10 sales, £50 per saleday +10: £552 spend, 23 sales, £24 per saleday +11: £464 spend, 16 sales, £29 per saleday +12: £466 spend, 12 sales, £39 per saleday +13: £465 spend, 11 sales, £42 per sale
rough days: 4 of 12 before, 9 of 14 after · not settled by day 13
15 Aug · Cook Candles1 ad
£85/d → £80/d · per sale £37 → £56 (wk1) → £40 (2wk)
£37-14-70+7+13day -14: £105 spend, 4 sales, £26 per saleday -13: £118 spend, 1 sales, £118 per sale (off scale)day -12: £92 spend, 1 sales, £92 per saleday -11: £73 spend, 1 sales, £73 per saleday -10: £69 spend, 1 sales, £69 per saleday -9: £78 spend, 3 sales, £26 per saleday -8: £80 spend, 1 sales, £80 per saleday -7: £87 spend, 4 sales, £22 per saleday -6: £101 spend, 3 sales, £34 per saleday -5: £80 spend, 5 sales, £16 per saleday -4: £68 spend, 1 sales, £68 per sale×day -3: £68 spend, no salesday -2: £85 spend, 1 sales, £85 per saleday -1: £78 spend, 6 sales, £13 per sale×day +0: £78 spend, no salesday +1: £88 spend, 1 sales, £88 per saleday +2: £77 spend, 1 sales, £77 per saleday +3: £73 spend, 2 sales, £36 per sale×day +4: £80 spend, no salesday +5: £82 spend, 5 sales, £16 per saleday +6: £79 spend, 1 sales, £79 per saleday +7: £79 spend, 1 sales, £79 per saleday +8: £89 spend, 5 sales, £18 per saleday +9: £74 spend, 3 sales, £25 per sale×day +10: £84 spend, no salesday +11: £77 spend, 1 sales, £77 per saleday +12: £78 spend, 2 sales, £39 per saleday +13: £79 spend, 6 sales, £13 per sale
rough days: 5 of 12 before, 7 of 14 after · not settled by day 13
31 Aug · Evergreen (old Tomato vine)9 ads
£720/d → £1,047/d · per sale £35 → £38 (wk1) → £41 (2wk)
£35-14-70+7+13day -14: £466 spend, 12 sales, £39 per saleday -13: £465 spend, 11 sales, £42 per saleday -12: £486 spend, 26 sales, £19 per saleday -11: £682 spend, 9 sales, £76 per saleday -10: £734 spend, 21 sales, £35 per saleday -9: £775 spend, 25 sales, £31 per saleday -8: £817 spend, 21 sales, £39 per saleday -7: £781 spend, 19 sales, £41 per saleday -6: £809 spend, 12 sales, £67 per saleday -5: £775 spend, 21 sales, £37 per saleday -4: £785 spend, 18 sales, £44 per saleday -3: £810 spend, 32 sales, £25 per saleday -2: £823 spend, 26 sales, £32 per saleday -1: £874 spend, 35 sales, £25 per saleday +0: £948 spend, 33 sales, £29 per saleday +1: £925 spend, 27 sales, £34 per saleday +2: £937 spend, 29 sales, £32 per saleday +3: £925 spend, 22 sales, £42 per saleday +4: £956 spend, 20 sales, £48 per saleday +5: £983 spend, 23 sales, £43 per saleday +6: £1,218 spend, 27 sales, £45 per saleday +7: £1,046 spend, 22 sales, £48 per saleday +8: £1,072 spend, 26 sales, £41 per saleday +9: £1,014 spend, 14 sales, £72 per saleday +10: £1,106 spend, 32 sales, £35 per saleday +11: £1,115 spend, 19 sales, £59 per saleday +12: £1,130 spend, 37 sales, £31 per saleday +13: £1,281 spend, 28 sales, £46 per sale
rough days: 3 of 12 before, 7 of 14 after · settled day 12
4 Oct · Cook Candles3 ads
£198/d → £208/d · per sale £43 → £35 (wk1) → £38 (2wk)
£43-14-70+7+13day -14: £201 spend, 8 sales, £25 per saleday -13: £188 spend, 1 sales, £188 per sale (off scale)day -12: £182 spend, 1 sales, £182 per sale (off scale)day -11: £207 spend, 4 sales, £52 per saleday -10: £199 spend, 5 sales, £40 per saleday -9: £191 spend, 8 sales, £24 per saleday -8: £205 spend, 8 sales, £26 per saleday -7: £232 spend, 7 sales, £33 per saleday -6: £180 spend, 3 sales, £60 per saleday -5: £186 spend, 3 sales, £62 per saleday -4: £200 spend, 5 sales, £40 per saleday -3: £202 spend, 2 sales, £101 per saleday -2: £201 spend, 3 sales, £67 per saleday -1: £197 spend, 7 sales, £28 per saleday +0: £213 spend, 8 sales, £27 per saleday +1: £195 spend, 3 sales, £65 per saleday +2: £185 spend, 8 sales, £23 per saleday +3: £198 spend, 6 sales, £33 per saleday +4: £211 spend, 6 sales, £35 per saleday +5: £198 spend, 4 sales, £49 per saleday +6: £198 spend, 5 sales, £40 per saleday +7: £218 spend, 4 sales, £55 per saleday +8: £198 spend, 4 sales, £49 per saleday +9: £189 spend, 5 sales, £38 per saleday +10: £210 spend, 5 sales, £42 per saleday +11: £228 spend, 4 sales, £57 per saleday +12: £230 spend, 5 sales, £46 per saleday +13: £234 spend, 9 sales, £26 per sale
rough days: 7 of 12 before, 2 of 14 after · settled day 5
4 Oct · Evergreen (old Tomato vine)44 ads
£1,609/d → £2,464/d · per sale £55 → £44 (wk1) → £47 (2wk)
£55-14-70+7+13day -14: £1,454 spend, 29 sales, £50 per saleday -13: £1,245 spend, 21 sales, £59 per saleday -12: £1,237 spend, 11 sales, £112 per saleday -11: £1,315 spend, 14 sales, £94 per saleday -10: £1,344 spend, 23 sales, £58 per saleday -9: £1,652 spend, 34 sales, £49 per saleday -8: £1,543 spend, 40 sales, £39 per saleday -7: £2,034 spend, 65 sales, £31 per saleday -6: £1,821 spend, 27 sales, £67 per saleday -5: £1,630 spend, 18 sales, £91 per saleday -4: £1,705 spend, 32 sales, £53 per saleday -3: £1,755 spend, 32 sales, £55 per saleday -2: £1,891 spend, 35 sales, £54 per saleday -1: £1,904 spend, 28 sales, £68 per saleday +0: £1,961 spend, 28 sales, £70 per saleday +1: £1,753 spend, 33 sales, £53 per saleday +2: £1,701 spend, 68 sales, £25 per saleday +3: £2,287 spend, 51 sales, £45 per saleday +4: £2,567 spend, 53 sales, £48 per saleday +5: £2,377 spend, 54 sales, £44 per saleday +6: £2,384 spend, 57 sales, £42 per saleday +7: £2,790 spend, 63 sales, £44 per saleday +8: £2,602 spend, 55 sales, £47 per saleday +9: £2,499 spend, 50 sales, £50 per saleday +10: £2,735 spend, 43 sales, £64 per saleday +11: £2,865 spend, 44 sales, £65 per saleday +12: £2,923 spend, 56 sales, £52 per saleday +13: £3,052 spend, 86 sales, £35 per sale
rough days: 4 of 12 before, 2 of 14 after · settled day 5
12 Oct · Cook Candles3 ads
£199/d → £231/d · per sale £42 → £38 (wk1) → £46 (2wk)
£42-14-70+7+13day -14: £180 spend, 3 sales, £60 per saleday -13: £186 spend, 3 sales, £62 per saleday -12: £200 spend, 5 sales, £40 per saleday -11: £202 spend, 2 sales, £101 per saleday -10: £201 spend, 3 sales, £67 per saleday -9: £197 spend, 7 sales, £28 per saleday -8: £213 spend, 8 sales, £27 per saleday -7: £195 spend, 3 sales, £65 per saleday -6: £185 spend, 8 sales, £23 per saleday -5: £198 spend, 6 sales, £33 per saleday -4: £211 spend, 6 sales, £35 per saleday -3: £198 spend, 4 sales, £49 per saleday -2: £198 spend, 5 sales, £40 per saleday -1: £218 spend, 4 sales, £55 per saleday +0: £198 spend, 4 sales, £49 per saleday +1: £189 spend, 5 sales, £38 per saleday +2: £210 spend, 5 sales, £42 per saleday +3: £228 spend, 4 sales, £57 per saleday +4: £230 spend, 5 sales, £46 per saleday +5: £234 spend, 9 sales, £26 per saleday +6: £268 spend, 9 sales, £30 per saleday +7: £236 spend, 4 sales, £59 per saleday +8: £221 spend, 2 sales, £110 per saleday +9: £223 spend, 1 sales, £223 per sale (off scale)day +10: £165 spend, 3 sales, £55 per saleday +11: £171 spend, 2 sales, £86 per saleday +12: £394 spend, 10 sales, £39 per saleday +13: £264 spend, 7 sales, £38 per sale
rough days: 3 of 12 before, 3 of 14 after · settled day 12
12 Oct · Evergreen (old Tomato vine)8 ads
£2,038/d → £2,958/d · per sale £49 → £50 (wk1) → £52 (2wk)
£49-14-70+7+13day -14: £1,821 spend, 27 sales, £67 per saleday -13: £1,630 spend, 18 sales, £91 per saleday -12: £1,705 spend, 32 sales, £53 per saleday -11: £1,755 spend, 32 sales, £55 per saleday -10: £1,891 spend, 35 sales, £54 per saleday -9: £1,904 spend, 28 sales, £68 per saleday -8: £1,961 spend, 28 sales, £70 per saleday -7: £1,753 spend, 33 sales, £53 per saleday -6: £1,701 spend, 68 sales, £25 per saleday -5: £2,287 spend, 51 sales, £45 per saleday -4: £2,567 spend, 53 sales, £48 per saleday -3: £2,377 spend, 54 sales, £44 per saleday -2: £2,384 spend, 57 sales, £42 per saleday -1: £2,790 spend, 63 sales, £44 per saleday +0: £2,602 spend, 55 sales, £47 per saleday +1: £2,499 spend, 50 sales, £50 per saleday +2: £2,735 spend, 43 sales, £64 per saleday +3: £2,865 spend, 44 sales, £65 per saleday +4: £2,923 spend, 56 sales, £52 per saleday +5: £3,052 spend, 86 sales, £35 per saleday +6: £3,272 spend, 65 sales, £50 per saleday +7: £2,987 spend, 45 sales, £66 per saleday +8: £2,992 spend, 43 sales, £70 per saleday +9: £2,903 spend, 52 sales, £56 per saleday +10: £1,969 spend, 32 sales, £62 per saleday +11: £2,348 spend, 47 sales, £50 per saleday +12: £4,948 spend, 105 sales, £47 per saleday +13: £3,310 spend, 67 sales, £49 per sale
rough days: 4 of 12 before, 2 of 14 after · settled day 11

The y axis of each panel is capped at three times the before-average so one bad day does not flatten the rest; hover a dot for the exact figures. "Rough days" counts days where the 3-day rolling cost per sale was more than 25% away from the before-average. "Settled" is the first day after which it stayed inside 25% to the end of the window; it gets easier to pass the closer a day is to the end, so late "settled" days mean little.

5 · The numbers behind the panels

Summary table

DateCampaignTypeAds addedSpend/day before → afterPer sale before → wk1 → 2wkRough daysSettled day
4 FebEvergreen 2026straight13£499 → £658£27 → £28 → £361/12 → 8/14–
20 FebEvergreen 2026straight9£700 → £611£41 → £46 → £305/12 → 6/1412
11 MarEvergreen 2026straight18£700 → £921£29 → £66 → £618/12 → 14/14–
17 AprCook Candlesstraight5£74 → £96£47 → £58 → £414/12 → 8/14–
2 MayEvergreen 2026mixed3 (1 tested)£175 → £150£38 → £38 → £435/12 → 7/14–
19 MayCook Candlesstraight23£122 → £149£52 → £43 → £359/12 → 11/14–
17 JunCitronella May 2026straight24£166 → £148£50 → £35 → £401/12 → 4/14–
17 JunEvergreen (old Tomato vine)straight5£127 → £205£18 → £25 → £245/12 → 9/1413
14 JulCitronella May 2026straight16£150 → £150£58 → £52 → £575/12 → 7/1413
14 JulEvergreen (old Tomato vine)straight30£231 → £290£23 → £45 → £350/12 → 9/14–
4 AugCook Candlestested1£104 → £79£48 → £32 → £403/12 → 12/14–
5 AugEvergreen (old Tomato vine)straight2£323 → £475£27 → £34 → £364/12 → 9/14–
14 AugRoses May 2026tested1£155 → £142£32 → £33 → £381/12 → 8/1412
14 AugCitronella May 2026mixed4 (1 tested)£177 → £145£41 → £33 → £336/12 → 4/1411
14 AugEvergreen (old Tomato vine)mixed12 (3 tested)£426 → £649£33 → £34 → £370/12 → 4/14–
15 AugCook Candlesstraight1£85 → £80£37 → £56 → £405/12 → 7/14–
31 AugEvergreen (old Tomato vine)straight9£720 → £1,047£35 → £38 → £413/12 → 7/1412
8 SepEvergreen (old Tomato vine)mixed20 (2 tested)£915 → £1,121£37 → £44 → £452/12 → 5/1410
17 SepEvergreen (old Tomato vine)mixed27 (5 tested)£1,064 → £1,444£45 → £54 → £510/12 → 5/14–
25 SepEvergreen (old Tomato vine)mixed24 (1 tested)£1,172 → £1,872£51 → £49 → £483/12 → 3/1413
4 OctCook Candlesstraight3£198 → £208£43 → £35 → £387/12 → 2/145
4 OctEvergreen (old Tomato vine)straight44£1,609 → £2,464£55 → £44 → £474/12 → 2/145
12 OctCook Candlesstraight3£199 → £231£42 → £38 → £463/12 → 3/1412
12 OctEvergreen (old Tomato vine)straight8£2,038 → £2,958£49 → £50 → £524/12 → 2/1411

6 · What this does and does not tell us

Read with these in mind

  • Budget changes sit on top of most batches. 14 of 24 batches had spend per day rise 20% or more in the same fortnight. Some of any change in cost per sale is scaling, not the new ads.
  • Learning phase is not visible after the fact. Meta does not keep learning-status history, so we cannot confirm a campaign re-entered learning each time. We can only see what cost per sale did.
  • Campaign results blend everything. Old ads keep running underneath. A calm campaign can still be hiding a bad new ad that Meta simply never fed.
  • Left out of the read (still on record):
    • 17 Apr · Almond April 2026 (3 ads, straight): under £50/day before, too few sales a day to read.
    • 20 Apr · Evergreen 2026 (3 ads, tested): spend fell by more than half: campaign being wound down.
    • 11 Jun · Ocean/Sea Salt (2 ads, tested): under £50/day before, too few sales a day to read.
    • 22 Jul · Seasalt Refresh (Jul 2026) (2 ads, straight): spend fell by more than half: campaign being wound down.
    • 15 Aug · Seasalt Refresh Purchase (Jul 2026) (9 ads, straight): spend fell by more than half: campaign being wound down.
    • 15 Aug · Orangery (Aug 2026) (1 ad, straight): spend fell by more than half: campaign being wound down.
    • Fir copies of 26 and 27 October: hit by the £5k → £2k budget cut on the same day, and not yet 14 days old.